The Trump administration is considering restricting exports of diesel from the United States, and has called on European nations to prepare and release their own fuel reserves as global supplies tighten. President Donald Trump confirmed at the weekend that his administration is examining an export ban "very seriously," and on Thursday added that he may formally request that European countries draw down some of their stored diesel.
The pressure escalated earlier in the week when Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent issued a public appeal for European allies to act without delay. In a social media post, Bessent said European partners should "accelerate delivery on their existing commitments and make additional supplies immediately available" to address what he described as ongoing disruptions in the fuel market. He argued that American farmers, truckers, and businesses should not be left to shoulder the burden as prices climb.
Diesel costs have surged on both sides of the Atlantic in the months since the outbreak of the US-Israel war in Iran in February. One of the most significant factors has been the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that normally carries roughly one-fifth of the world's oil and gas. With that route disrupted, the price of refined products made from crude oil has risen sharply. An export ban imposed by Russia, another major diesel supplier, has compounded the strain on global markets.
The United States occupies a central role in the international diesel trade, shipping between 1.2 million and 1.5 million barrels per day to customers around the world. Analysts have cautioned that cutting off those shipments could backfire by driving international prices even higher while offering only limited relief at American pumps. David Fyfe, chief economist at the commodity pricing agency Argus Media, said that halting US supply would likely send overseas prices soaring.
Trump has framed the potential ban as a way to keep surplus barrels at home, lower domestic pump prices, and deliver quick relief to drivers, trucking firms, and businesses. The timing is politically sensitive: November's midterm elections will determine control of Congress, and the president is expected to campaign across the country for Republican candidates as he seeks to preserve majorities in both the House and the Senate. With fuel costs weighing heavily on voters' minds, the administration appears eager to show it is responding to the squeeze.
In the United Kingdom, the effects are already being felt acutely. Diesel prices reached an all-time high this week, with figures from the motoring organisation the RAC putting the average at 199.79 pence per litre, up from 142.38p previously. That leaves the cost of diesel hovering just below the symbolic 200p mark, a level that would add further strain to household budgets and business operating costs.
Britain is particularly exposed to any disruption in global diesel flows because it depends heavily on imports. While the country's four refineries produce more than enough petrol to satisfy domestic demand, they cannot manufacture sufficient diesel. According to the Department for Transport, there were 15.1 million diesel vehicles on UK roads at the end of June, a decline from 15.7 million a year earlier. The number of diesel cars stood at 9.8 million, down from 10.4 million the previous year, as drivers continue to shift away from the fuel.
Diesel is more difficult and costly to refine than gasoline, and because it powers the haulage industry and agricultural machinery, demand is hard to reduce quickly. That inelasticity means price spikes feed directly into the cost of moving goods and producing food, amplifying the broader economic impact.
On Thursday, Britain's Energy Minister, Martin McCluskey, joined a call with European counterparts to discuss how to respond if Washington proceeds with an export ban. A source familiar with the discussions told the BBC that preparing a coordinated response with other countries, including EU members, was the prudent course. The source noted, however, that European reserves remain from a joint release of strategic fuel stocks carried out earlier in the year.
A UK government spokesperson sought to reassure the public, saying: "We have a diverse and resilient supply. We continue to engage with our international partners and the UK fuel industry." Ministers have stressed there is no immediate cause for concern about shortages, though they acknowledge prices are likely to rise further.
The European Commission confirmed that diplomacy is intensifying. A spokesperson said there had been "lots of calls, lots of meetings" about the diesel situation, including high-level contacts with the US administration. The flurry of activity suggests European capitals are taking the threat of an American export ban seriously and are weighing how to cushion the blow.
The dilemma facing policymakers is that measures designed to shield one national market can easily aggravate shortages elsewhere. If the US curtails exports, European buyers would need to source diesel from alternative suppliers, many of which are already stretched. That competition could push up prices for everyone, including in developing economies where fuel costs are especially sensitive.
For the UK, the coming weeks will test the resilience of its supply chains and the strength of its coordination with European allies. While government officials insist there is no cause for alarm, the record pump prices tell a different story for consumers and businesses already grappling with elevated energy costs. The outcome of the US deliberations, and Europe's willingness to release reserves, will shape how painful the months ahead prove to be.
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