When Vladimir Putin addressed Russia's parliament this week, he could count on a friendly reception. Last month's legislative elections, tightly managed by the Kremlin, produced a State Duma more uniformly loyal to the president than any that came before it. The ruling United Russia party now holds more seats than at any point in its history, handing the Kremlin a convenient claim: that the Russian people have delivered an overwhelming mandate for the president's agenda.
The question is what that mandate will be used for. There is no indication that Putin intends to wind down the conflict he refers to as a special military operation. Instead, the signals emerging from Moscow point toward continued escalation, both on the battlefield in Ukraine and in the broader confrontation with Europe. Despite the heavy toll the war has taken on Russian forces and the growing strain on the country's economy, the president's public statements suggest he remains convinced that a military victory is achievable.
Observers will be watching closely on Thursday, when Putin is scheduled to appear at the Valdai Discussion Club in Moscow. That annual foreign policy forum has traditionally served as a platform for the Russian leader to lay out his worldview, and his remarks there have often offered clues about his strategic thinking. This year's speech will be scrutinized for any hint of a shift in direction, though none is currently expected.
According to Russian media reporting, Moscow appears emboldened by Ukraine's shortage of air defence missiles. The expectation in the Kremlin is that sustained Russian strikes through the winter months will steadily increase pressure on the Ukrainian population. Kyiv has openly acknowledged the difficulty of intercepting Russia's ballistic missiles and its new jet-powered drones, which have been launched against Ukrainian targets on a near-daily basis.
Beyond Ukraine, the Kremlin has been equally explicit about its objectives in Europe. Moscow wants European governments to scale back the military and financial assistance they provide to Kyiv, support that the Kremlin argues only prolongs the fighting and stands in the way of a Russian victory. Western officials believe Russia has been transmitting that message through a range of not-so-subtle means, including cyber-attacks, acts of sabotage, and drones violating European airspace.
One particularly alarming episode involved a drone carrying an explosive device discovered near Ukrainian cargo planes at Leipzig airport in Germany. Such incidents, Western officials argue, form part of a covert campaign being waged in the grey zone that exists between peace and war. The aim is to unsettle European publics and governments without crossing the threshold into open military confrontation.
In an interview this week, Russia's foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, was asked directly whether his country is waging a hybrid war against European states. His response was defiant rather than denying. He framed the question in reverse, asking whether the interviewer meant the destruction of drones and missiles that Britain and continental Europe are supplying to Ukraine and which are used to strike Russia. If European weapons are being used against Russian targets and Russia destroys them, Lavrov said, then observers can call it whatever they like. He added that he has no doubt this is a war that Europe is waging against Russia, a position he said Moscow has held for a long time.
That framing has in fact been the official Russian line for some time: that the conflict in Ukraine amounts to a European war on Russia. It is a narrative that conveniently omits the fact that it was the Kremlin that launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and that Russian forces continue to wage war on Ukrainian territory.
The critical question now is how far Russia might go to sever European support for Kyiv. Is Moscow actively preparing to trigger a military conflict with a Nato member state? Most analysts consider that unlikely. After more than four and a half years of fighting, Russia's army has still not managed to occupy the whole of Ukraine's eastern Donbas region, which lies directly adjacent to Russian territory. A direct clash with Nato would represent an entirely different order of magnitude.
But frightening Europe may well be the intended objective, rather than fighting it. The calculation in Moscow appears to be that by raising the spectre of escalation, Russia can pressure European governments into reducing their support for Ukraine. The messaging coming from influential Russian figures supports that interpretation.
Sergei Karaganov, an honorary chairman of Russia's Council for Foreign and Defence Policy and a prominent foreign policy strategist, has articulated the threat in stark terms. He warned that if Europe continues what he described as a European war with American help against Russia on Ukrainian territory, Moscow will sooner or later feel compelled to escalate. In his scenario, the first wave of strikes would be conventional. But if Europe does not capitulate, he said, Russia would unfortunately have to resort to nuclear weapons, and little would remain of some European countries.
When challenged on the idea that a nuclear strike would provoke a response from Europe and leave nothing of Russia, Karaganov dismissed the notion. He expressed confidence that neither Britain nor the United States would retaliate with nuclear weapons, suggesting that such a response would be unthinkable. His remarks reflect a belief within parts of the Russian elite that the West lacks the resolve to match Moscow's willingness to escalate.
Taken together, the picture that emerges is one of a Kremlin that sees no reason to change course. A more pliant parliament at home, expectations of mounting pressure abroad, and a willingness to use threatening rhetoric toward Europe all point in the same direction. Putin continues to show no sign of stopping the war, and Russia appears to be doubling down on Ukraine rather than seeking an off-ramp.
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