Rebel authorities in Ethiopia's northern Tigray region have announced a temporary pullback from Mekelle, the regional capital, confirming that their fighters have left the city as federal troops and allied forces advance toward it. The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), which has governed the region for years, said the withdrawal was prompted by fears for the safety of civilians rather than a military defeat. The move marks a dramatic turning point in a conflict that has reignited fears of widespread instability across the Horn of Africa.
Two residents of Mekelle told the BBC that pro-government forces are now in control of the city and that TPLF fighters have vacated it entirely. One of those residents also reported that mobile phone services appear to have been restored in parts of the capital, a small sign of normalcy amid a rapidly shifting security situation. The accounts could not be independently verified, but they align with the rebel movement's own statement about relocating its forces.
The TPLF framed its decision as a precautionary measure designed to shield non-combatants from the dangers of urban warfare. In a region still scarred by a devastating two-year civil war, the prospect of fighting inside a densely populated city has raised alarm among humanitarian organisations and ordinary residents alike. By stepping back from Mekelle, the rebel leadership appears to be signalling that it will not force a bloody showdown in the streets, at least for now.
Fighting has erupted in recent weeks between the TPLF and federal government forces, together with allied fighters, across parts of Tigray as well as the neighbouring northern regions of Afar and Amhara. The clashes have escalated quickly, reversing a period of relative calm that had followed the end of the civil war in 2022. That conflict, which pitted the TPLF against Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government, was one of the deadliest of the century; the African Union's mediator estimated that around 600,000 people lost their lives as the fighting pushed the region to the brink of famine.
The recent collapse in relations between the two sides has been building for months. Over the past six months, ties have deteriorated steadily, with each side accusing the other of breaching the terms of the Pretoria Agreement, the AU-brokered peace deal that formally ended hostilities. That agreement was meant to pave the way for reconciliation, disarmament and the restoration of services, but its implementation has stalled amid mutual distrust and unresolved political disputes.
Last month, the TPLF deepened the rift by joining six other armed movements, including the Fano militia from Amhara, to form a new alliance. The coalition's stated aim is to remove Abiy's government from power, a goal that transforms what had been a regional dispute into a broader challenge to the federal state. The formation of the alliance has alarmed observers, who see it as evidence that Ethiopia's numerous unresolved conflicts could merge into a single, more dangerous confrontation.
The fighting has also drawn in Ethiopia's neighbours, raising the spectre of a wider regional war. On Friday, Ethiopia and Eritrea severed diplomatic relations after Addis Ababa accused Asmara of backing the new rebel alliance, an allegation Eritrea has denied. Ethiopia has similarly accused Egypt of supporting the rebels, a charge that led to the expulsion of an Egyptian diplomat; Cairo responded in kind by ordering an Ethiopian embassy official to leave. These tit-for-tat expulsions have sharply raised tensions along already fragile fault lines.
Diplomatic efforts are continuing despite the worsening situation. The US Department of State has urged all parties to exercise restraint and pursue dialogue, issuing its appeal ahead of a diplomatic meeting on the conflict in Egypt on Sunday. That gathering is expected to bring together leaders from some of Ethiopia's neighbours, underlining the regional anxiety about the conflict's potential to spill across borders. Whether such talks can produce a credible de-escalation remains uncertain, given the speed of events on the ground.
The humanitarian consequences are becoming increasingly severe. The United Nations has warned that the deteriorating security situation in northern Ethiopia is badly disrupting aid operations, and it has called on all sides to guarantee safe and unhindered access to people in need. Aid agencies worry that renewed fighting could reverse hard-won gains and leave vulnerable communities, many of whom are still recovering from the previous war, without food, medicine or shelter.
For the residents of Mekelle and surrounding areas, the latest developments carry painful echoes of the past. Thousands of families were displaced during the civil war, and many have only recently begun to rebuild their lives. The return of active combat, coupled with the uncertainty over who controls the regional capital, threatens to trigger fresh displacement and deepen the sense of insecurity that has lingered since 2022.
The withdrawal from Mekelle is significant both militarily and symbolically. Losing the regional capital would represent a major blow to the TPLF's claim to govern Tigray, even if its forces remain intact elsewhere. At the same time, the rebel group's decision to avoid a fight inside the city may preserve its fighting capacity and its standing among civilians, positioning it for a possible counter-offensive or a future negotiating round.
Observers caution that the situation remains fluid. Control of territory in the region has shifted repeatedly during the conflict, and the federal government's hold on Mekelle could prove difficult to consolidate if resistance continues in rural areas. The arrival of pro-government troops in the capital may be presented in Addis Ababa as a decisive gain, but it could also invite insurgent attacks and prolong the wider war.
The broader danger is that Ethiopia's multiple armed conflicts, in Tigray, Amhara and beyond, could fuse into a nationwide crisis. With the TPLF now aligned with other rebel movements, and with Eritrea and Egypt drawn into the dispute, the conflict risks destabilising the entire Horn of Africa. Neighbouring countries already grappling with their own security and economic problems have strong incentives to prevent the fighting from spreading.
For now, all eyes are on Mekelle, where the sudden departure of rebel forces has changed the facts on the ground. Whether this proves to be a tactical pause or the beginning of a more permanent shift in the balance of power will depend on decisions made in the coming days by military commanders and political leaders alike. What is clear is that the fragile peace that followed the 2022 agreement has unravelled, and the region once again stands at a dangerous crossroads.
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